It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
